Can we expect the RBA to cut back rates this summer?

With just one RBA rate decision left for 2024, homeowners may be holding onto hopes of a summer cut. We look at when rates may start falling – and how you could possibly give yourself a rate cut before Christmas.

“Are we there yet?” It’s the catch cry of kids on long summer road trips, and it could just as easily apply to homeowners waiting for much-anticipated rate cuts.

The good news is that we appear to be getting closer – with many banks forecasting a possible RBA rate cut by the end of summer.

Rates on hold for November …

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold in November, despite inflation falling to 2.8%, which is well within the RBA’s preferred 2-3% inflation range.

So, what’s holding up rate cuts? And why does it seem like the goalposts keep shifting?

It turns out the RBA is concerned that part of the decline in inflation “reflects temporary cost of living relief” (think the $300 power bill credit).

Basically, the RBA is worried that inflation remains too high and the outlook is still a little too uncertain to make any rate cuts right now.

Banks expect rates to fall in early 2025

What the RBA is aiming for, is “sustainably returning inflation to target” (that’s the 2-3% band). And it cautioned this could still be a way off.

That makes the chances of a festive season rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting (December 10) unlikely.

For the record, RBA Governor Michele Bullock didn’t give any hint on the direction of interest rates – either up or down.

The banks, however, are a lot more open – and optimistic – about their interest rate expectations.

The Commonwealth Bank, which had previously tipped a December rate cut, is now pencilling in the following meeting (February 18) for the first of what could be a string of rate cuts.

Westpac, ANZ and AMP also all anticipate the RBA to cut the cash rate as early as February, while NAB is forecasting a rate cut as early as March 2025.

Why wait? Variable rates are already falling

While all this may make for a happy new year, February may seem a long way off – especially if you’re sweating on a rate cut (and remember, there are no guarantees).

But you may not have to wait around for the economy or the RBA to shift in your favour.

It could be possible to give yourself a rate cut in time for Christmas.

According to Mozo, growing expectations of future rate cuts have seen a number of lenders take the knife to their variable rates, with some cutting their variable rates below the 6% mark.

This may be helping to drive a 2.1% uptick in the volume of home loans being refinanced over the past month.

Talk to us today

Waiting is never much fun. Refinancing now could help free up your household budget and contribute to a little extra Christmas cheer.

If that sounds good to you, contact us for a review of your home loan. We can run through your situation and let you know if there are ways to save on your current home loan interest rate.

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